The Wolf and the Kremlin

Chapter 1: Unlikely Events

There is an axiom in science that the simplest possible solution that covers all the facts however bizzare is generally the truth. This scenario however strange is the simplest solution that accounts for many otherwise unaccountable events, some small some large. It may also be the only one that excuses the Russian military command from high treason for their otherwise inexcusable and completely illegal overthrow of their own President. It has all the appearances of a conspiracy theory up their with the delights of the Area 51 nuts (Area 51 will reappear by the way) but in many respects the presumed truth is the real implausibility.

There are three assumptions that generally pass as truth. The first is that the Soviet Union collapsed due to natural causes. The second is that the usual suspects didn't move one-inch forward when the gates fell. And the third is that the American government acts consistently, rationally and in the best interest of the American people. Understanding that all three of these assumptions are almost certainly, or certainly, false eliminates the primary obstacles to the scenario.

In urban myth, the Soviet Union collapsed almost solely due to growing economic weakness, decay and a little support from Gorbachev. However much weaker dictatorships have repeatedly dragged onward, weak and in ruins but still in the iron grip of the elites. Even Cuba which was eagerly expected to follow the great Bolshevik state to its grave has slogged on drained, ugly and oppressed but in unrelenting fetters. Furthermore there is a reason these states do not collapse. There are organizations withing these states whose purpose is stifle the seed of the revolution before it spreads. The question of what really happens when a growing mass of protesters attempt to assemble to bring down a government was best demonstrated in Tienanmen square. Even if the leadership is sympathetic to the protesters the local authorities are never going to simply forget their prime directive. Furthermore the KGB was so obedient to Gorbachev that they actually tried to assassinate him. Is it really possible that Gorbachev alone could have held the KGB in, opened the gate and allowed for the fall? The KGB should have been taking out the protesters as they assembled; and if the first small flames are snuffed out nothing forms. The KGB and their allies in the German police had hunted disrupters for decades but this time they failed. What broke the iron grip? What stopped the KGB from hunting down the revolution? Was something else there, hunting the hunters?

Chapter 2: Military Doctrine and the CIA

Then there is a question of doctrine and of cultural habits in this case of the Anglo-Saxons. The current premise is that the Soviet Union collapsed, the KGB was put down or at least highly disorganized, the gate was wide open and the usual suspects didn't touch anything, or even turn up aside from a few relatively harmless agents in Siberia. In all the recorded history of the Anglo-Saxon this would be an absolute first time a country was left to its own devices. In fact the usual reason for us to show up in your country and randomly take over your government, or get shot trying, is we found out where your capital is located. Other major inducements are natural resources, strategic importance and critical potential as a threat. All of which Russia posses in the highest degree. Militarily doctrine of the Anglo-Saxons; their cousins, the Germans; and the old republic Americans does not allow for interference in Russian internal affairs: It dictates interference. There is a doctrine of something roughly translated as the “heavy point”, or better the “critical point”. This doctrine basically states that the purpose of American high command is to find the most critical systems necessary to insuring the strategic objectives of the United States and either seize or neutralize these systems. At the time of the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia and her arsenal of nuclear weapons were definitively the system most critical to American strategic objectives on the planet. This is even without adding the geographical position of Vladivostok relative to Korea or the vast wealth of oil in Siberia. American military doctrine did not allow for the control of the Kremlin it demanded control of the Kremlin be established by at least a party favorable to American interest. If NATO wasn't moving one inch forward it's because they'd have landed in the middle of a CIA operation.

There is a very good chance the CIA was actually involved in the events in East Germany and it is almost certain that they moved in after the wall fell as far as they could get into Kremlin. The real question is not whether they were there but who, how and most of all why the operation was later allowed to spiral into disaster. Understanding the answers begins with understanding who the CIA really is and the complicated diversity, literally, division, of American politics.

The CIA to operate needs to maintain two functions. First it needs to at least understand if not infiltrate its target and secondly it needs need to maintain extreme secrecy. Understanding the target means the human analysis element if the CIA is going to be spending extensive time learning everything about Russians beginning with their language and proceeding from there. Generally first and second generation Russian emigrants are the primary source for human intel. These emigrants are also the most obvious agents for infiltration. Pretty much the only people the CIA was ever able to get to successfully impersonate Russians were Russians. Fortunately for the CIA there was a very natural source of agents. Whenever there is a war there is aways a portion of the losing faction who are unable to realize they've been beaten. The Russian revolution of the last century was no doubt like all wars; While the OSS (later the CIA) was looking for agents who could pose as Russians, the white Russian exiles were looking for allies in the overthrow of the communists who took over their country. Being that the white Russians would be among the most motivated as well as the most capable human intel agents accessible to the CIA it is very likely that they not only moved in but also made something of a nest in the Russian-faction of the CIA. The second attribute of the CIA is the extreme secrecy which generates the “need to know” policy. Basically personal not immediately involved in an operation and have no knowledge that it, or for that matter its personal exist. This means that factions in the CIA that are focused on other countries, for instance the middle east, most likely don't even know who is in the Russian-faction much less overlap much in daily affairs. The need-to-know policy if really applied would tend to create an extreme fractionation of the CIA practically splitting it into a series of separate agencies only linked at the highest level. In fact, combined with the cultural immersion of the CIA in its target the fractionation could potentially lead sections of the CIA into almost becoming more tiny countries allied with the US than agents of the US.

Initially the CIA was probably reasonably content with Yeltsin. However Yeltsin alone in the Kremlin would not satisfy their objectives. To begin with the KGB although temporarily put down was not even close to eliminated and they would soon be reassembling with intentions obviously incompatible with American interest. Yeltsin was not likely to have a long or very happy life if left to his own devices and those of the KGB. Secondly the CIA could not have been blind to the obvious. Countries do not simply become democracies. Russian conversion would require a good bit of assistance. The modern American government if given a similar opportunity would have descended on Russia with all the benign intentions that are generally attributed to imperialists. However fortunately for Russia, when she was at her most vulnerable the corruption in the United States was no where near where it is now. American foreign policy was still in the hands of the Anglo-Saxon idealist, arguably completely insane, but at least dedicated to nothing much worse than spreading democracy like an infections disease. That is through the last hundred or more years the US has continuously been trying to create replicas of herself by spreading the glorious ideals of democracy and freedom. Democracy and freedom of course when actually implemented become majority popular rule and more often than not absolute chaos. Cuba was a total disaster, However as many times as their little operations fail, the Americans could never help trying again on another victim. A few have actually survived the process. So when Russia opened up the usual collection of armchair Jeffersons had the opportunity of a lifetime. Of the merry band of brothers that descended on the brave new Russia the third part would undoubtedly be the political theorists, constitutional scholars and generally would be nation builders; with dreams of glory and a new Utopia. A few may even have had some clue what the hell it was they were trying to accomplish.

Chapter 3: Romulus

As with any band of brothers somebody had to lead the charge and this is where the Russians appear to have got a little of their own back. The Russian nationalist have been trying for a Czar for some time. Of which there are doubtless any number of obstacles but the most problematic is the Czar himself. So far they have had about as much luck catching Romanov's as a man catching fish with his bare hands. Every one they could possibly want skitters off and hides under the weeds of yet another NATO country and leaves the the would be Czarist rather forlorn. There is an off chance though that Gorbachev actually got way ahead of them here. That is there is the strange case of Peter the Third. In addition to being more or less completely mad Peter the third looked rather like a fish himself. He had an unusually long bony French, Frankish, nose, almost straight, but with a slight bump in the middle of it and a remarkably short chin. The reason the nose was so long was that his narrow high-cheek-boned face was abnormally long between the tops of his eye sockets and the upper jaw. It appeared that almost to compensate for this his chin was abnormally short. Curiously enough Peter the third appears to have come back from the grave recently and turned up in St. Petersburg. Actually in a modified form as the gentleman in question has Peter the Third's strange nose and face but not his bug eyed forehead. Technically the resemblance could be a highly improbably coincidence; however there is also the BBC interview with Gorbachev. The one where the BBC tries to bait him into denouncing a certain person. This leads to a very curious response: an almost 30 second pause and then a very strong endorsement of the man in question which was strange since it almost sounded like an older man talking about his protégé. After that Gorbachev had another almost 30 second long private joke with himself about the Gentleman's name, something to the effect that he knew what the guy's real name was; and just barely managed not to blurt it out to the entire international press corp.

It is just possible that when the CIA decided to take over Russia in honor of over a thousand nuclear warheads they decided to be at least a bit polite about it. Instead of giving the Russians an agent they probably gave them a list of eligible personal complete with pictures and bios. And of course there are all those California Romanovs, likely more than Wikipedia even accounts for, some of whom probably got the bright idea they didn't just want to join the navy they also had to go and have another round with their ancient acquaintances from the treacherous old secret police. It is just possible Gorbachev caught himself a Romanov and got the CIA to catch him truss him up and deliver the new Czar properly hog-tied to Russia's doorstep as a peace offering and all the ornery critter could do is rename himself (too-late) for a demoniacally possessed undead corpse. Whatever else Vladimir “Rasputin” may have been he wasn't much of a politician; he has yet to successfully lose a single election in Russia with that trick. He wouldn't need to be though. Elections in the US are a massive business and a skilled team of pollsters, public opinion analysts and speech-writers could probably get Donald Duck elected president (There may even be Americans who believe that one or more recent elections have proved this. Won't go there...). In any case, a CIA backed candidate supported by an experienced American team running against a collection of Russians just trying to figure out the whole populist election thing would be like running a Ferrari against a Yugo. And with the KGB General of the entire counter intel division working with the Americans it couldn't have been too difficult for the KGB to get an extra major, without even bothering to recruit the man. So everything was set up for Yeltsin to find his new head for the FSB. The minor problem was, aside from the fact that the CIA unwisely promoted the suspicious major to an even more suspicious Lt-Colonel, it looks like the KGB wasn't buying in. Not only did the Colonel probably not adequately resemble a KGB agent it is doubtful if he even vaguely resembled anything they could ever have possibly wanted anywhere near a KGB agemt. In any case his career of finding secondary sources of income for under-employed CIA comrades who might fancy moonlighting in Russia was cut rather abruptly short as the real KGB moved back in. Yeltsin was however able to partially save the situation by converting the evicted FSB chief back into a politician. Where he attempted to fit into the role by randomly embarrassing himself in public. If the KGB had any remaining doubts about his career as a KGB agent that dint as a pop singer probably settled it permanently. As to what this guy was doing, other than making a public spectacle of himself, he was probably really head of security. Given his propensities, not to mention hobbies and the fact that the Russians who selected him also likely had a bit of a bias against the CIA he was most likely a Naval officer and not straight CIA. However any Russian speaking officer who graduates from Naval special forces school in the 80's would effectively become property of the CIA. There is a fair amount of overlap between the kind of guys who go into military special ops and the kind of guys who go into security. They are not exactly the same thing but a special forces officer being given additional training by the secret service to function as presidential security is plausible. Putin once said that he ran his own security (as president). This meant one of three things, essentially nobody tries to assassinate anyone in Russia (...), he had been resurrected from the dead for the purposes of the interview; or he had extensive training and expertise in handling security operations. Interesting enough Putin's official bio does not account for the latter; however protecting Yeltsin would coincidentally have been the primary mission of the ranking CIA operative in Russia during the 90's and he would have been fully trained.

The intrepid little CIA agent should have been sent home to enjoy his pension having done his bit for president and country as soon as his boss found a replacement security detail or at least by the time Yeltsin's two terms in office were up. Unfortunately Yeltsin not only failed to find a replacement chief of security he didn't even find a replacement victim for the Kremlin. So the unfortunate spy for all the attempts to grimace like a dead fish was set up as the sacrifice. The whole grimacing thing is actually kinda weird. Guy must have been either constipated or Scottish (at least part Scottish. Anyone who doubts this should look at the portrait of the first military governor of St Petersburg). The CIA would of course have been ecstatic. Which means that they would have tried immediately to secure their new position by first covering their agent in piles of shit and hoping the usual suspects wouldn't see through. However the KGB has a history of penetrating the American government even at the highest levels. Which means that just deceiving the press would not have been enough. The CIA would have doubtless given false intel on “Putin” even to ranking members of the US military. The KGB however is also an old partner in this dance with the CIA. Thereby the CIA would mostly succeed in setting up their unfortunate agent as public enemy number one with his countrymen, while the KGB remained totally unimpressed.